Mathematical statistical analysis of extreme weather events under changing climate  Page description

Help  Print 
Back »
 

Details of project

  
Identifier
38423
Type K
Principal investigator Szeidl, László
Title in Hungarian Időjárási szélsőségek matematikai statisztikai vizsgálata változó éghajlati feltételek mellett
Title in English Mathematical statistical analysis of extreme weather events under changing climate
Panel Earth sciences 2
Department or equivalent Department of Mathematics (University of Pécs)
Participants Bartholy, Judit
Matyasovszky, István
Pongrácz, Rita
Starting date 2002-01-01
Closing date 2006-12-31
Funding (in million HUF) 7.144
FTE (full time equivalent) 0.00
state closed project





 

Final report

  
Results in Hungarian
A pályázati munka keretében változó éghajlati feltételek mellett vizsgáltuk az időjárási szélsőségeket. Elméleti, módszertani és modellezési feladatokkal, valamint konkrét elemzésekkel és az abból levonható következtetésekkel foglalkoztunk. Az eredmények jelentős része publikálásra került. A zárójelentésben a legfontosabb eredmények bemutatására kerül sor: a beszámoló részben a sokrétű kutatás egységes tárgyalását tartalmazza, részben pedig az egyes területeken elért eredmények összefoglalóit.
Results in English
During the project we have been examining the extreme weather parametres under changing climate conditions. We have been dealing with theoretical, methodological and modelling tasks, and also with given analysis on the basis of local meteorological time series and conclusions deducted from these results. Most of the results have been published. In the final report the most important results are being introduced: the report partly comprises the certain fields of research and partly the summary of the results reached and achieved.
Full text http://real.mtak.hu/588/
Decision
Yes





 

List of publications

  
Bartholy J., Pongrácz R.: Regional effects of ENSO in Central/Eastern Europe., Advances in Geosciences, 6, pp. 133-137., 2006
Bartholy J., Pongrácz R.: Kárpát-medence extrém hőmérsékleti és csapadék indexeinek XX. századi változásai., Természet-, műszaki- és gazdaságtudományok alkalmazás 4. nemzetközi konferencia. Szombathely, 2005. május 28., 2005
Bartholy J., Pongrácz R.: Extremes of ground-based and satellite measurements in the vegetation period for the Carpathian Basin., Physics and Chemistry of Earth, , 30 (No. 1-3), pp. 81-89, 2005
Bartholy J., Pongrácz R.: Regional climate projections for the Carpathian Basin., In: Térkép - Tudomány. Tanulmányok Klinghammer István professzor 65. születésnapja tiszteletére. (szerk. Zentai L., Györffy J., Török Zs.) Térképtudományi Tanulmányok 13,, 2006
Bartholy J., Pongrácz R.: Regional analysis of extreme temperature and precipitation indices for Central/Eastern Europe for the last 50 years., General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union. Vienna, Austria. 24-29 April 2005., 2005
Torma Cs., Pongrácz R., Bartholy J., Schlanger V.: A globális melegedés várható regionális éghajlati következményeinek becslése a Kárpát-medence térségére., Természet-, műszaki- és gazdaságtudományok alkalmazás 4. nemzetközi konferencia. Szombathely, 2005. május 28., 2005
Bartholy J., Pongrácz R.: TNéhány extrém éghajlati paraméter globális és a Kárpát-medencére számított tendenciája a XX. században., AGRO-21 Füzetek. 40. szám. pp. 70-93., 2005
Dezső Zs., Bartholy J., Pongrácz R., Barcza Z.: Analysis of land-use/land-cover change in the Carpathian region based on remote sensing techniques., Physics and Chemistry of Earth, 30 (No. 1-3), pp. 109-115., 2005
Bartholy J., Pongrácz R.: Tendencies of extreme climate indices based on daily precipitation in the Carpathian Basin for the 20th century., Időjárás, 109 (No. 1.), pp. 1-20., 2005
Bartholy J., Pongrácz R.: Analysis of precipitation conditions for the Carpathian Basin based on extreme indices in the 20th century and climate simulations for the 21st century, Physics and Chemistry of Earth, megjelenés alatt., 2005
Bartholy J., Mika J., Pongrácz R., Schlanger V.: A globális felmelegedés éghajlati sajátosságai a Kárpát-medencében. In: Éghajlatváltozás a világban és Magyarországon (szerk.: Takács-Sánta A.), Alinea Kiadó – Védegylet, Budapest. pp. 105-139., 2005
Bartholy J., Pongrácz R.: Az antropogén eredetű klímaváltozás regionális következményei, az alkalmazkodás lehetőségei. In: Humánökológia: A természetvédelem, a környezetvédelem és az embervédelem, Medicina Könyvkiadó, Budapest. pp. 167-192., 2005
Bartholy J., Pongrácz R.: Regional climate reconstruction based on written sources for the Carpathian Basin., Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 7. 07688. CD-ROM. EGU General Assembly 2005. 1607-7962/gra/EGU05-A-07688., 2005
Pongrácz R., Bartholy J.: Analysis of drought events occurred in the 20th century based on extreme precipitation indices., Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 7. 01179. CD-ROM. EGU General Assembly 2005. 1607-7962/gra/EGU05-A-01179., 2005
Bartholy J., Pongrácz R: Regional analysis of extreme temperature and precipitation indices for Central/Eastern Europe for the last 50 years., Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 7. 01135. CD-ROM. EGU General Assembly 2005. 1607-7962/gra/EGU05-A-01135., 2005
Bartholy J., Pongrácz R., Pattantyús-Ábrahám M., Pátkai Zs.: Az Atlanti-Európai ciklonok pályájának, s a Magyarország felett átvonuló frontok tendencia elemzése az ERA-40 reanalízis adatbázis felhasználásával., Természet-, műszaki- és gazdaságtudományok alkalmazás 4. nemzetközi konferencia. Szombathely, 2005. május 28., 2005
Kern A., Bartholy J., Pongrácz R., Dezso Zs., Barcza Z., Torma Cs.: Hydrological consequences of annual- and decadal-scale change of vegetation cover using remotely sensed data., Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 7. 01063. CD-ROM. EGU General Assembly 2005. 1607-7962/gra/EGU05-A-01063., 2005
Hunyady A., Mika J., Pongrácz R., Zsuffa I.: Climate change effects on water level extremes modelled for an oxbow., Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 7. 01226. CD-ROM. EGU General Assembly 2005. 1607-7962/gra/EGU05-A-01226., 2005
Bartholy J., Pongrácz R.: Regional effects of climate oscillations in Central/Eastern Europe., 1st Alexander von Humboldt International Conference on The El Niño phenomenon and its global impact. pp. 114. CIIFEN – EGU, Ecuador., 2005
Pongrácz R., Bartholy J., Bogardi I.: Modelling ENSO-affected regional drought using fuzzy logic, 1st Alexander von Humboldt International Conference on The El Niño phenomenon and its global impact. pp. 116. CIIFEN – EGU, Ecuador., 2005
Pongrácz R., Bartholy J.: Millennial analysis of the reconstructed climate in the Carpathian Basin on the base of coded written sources., PAGES Second Open Science Meeting – Abstract Book. PAGES, Bern, Switzerland. pp. 62., 2005
Pongrácz R., Bartholy J., Dezso Zs., Kern A., Barcza Z.: Decadal change of forest area in the Upper-Tisza watershed based on remotely sensed information., IAMAS 2005, Scientific Assembly of the International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences. Beijing, China. August 2-11, 2005. C12, 2005
Bartholy J., Pongrácz R., Dezső Zs., Kern A., Barcza Z: Remotely sensed detection of land cover change at the Upper-Tisza watershed located in the mountain Carpathes. EMS Annual Meeting/ECAM 2005, Abstracts, Vol. 2. European Meteorological Society. EMS05-A-00108., 2005
Pongrácz R., Bartholy J.: Analysis of extreme climate indices based on daily precipitation and temperature observations in the Carpathian Basin., EMS Annual Meeting/ECAM 2005 – Abstracts, Vol. 2. European Meteorological Society. EMS05-A-00110., 2005
Bartholy J., Pongrácz R., Hunyady A., Torma Cs.: Regional climate scenarios for Hungary using statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques., EMS Annual Meeting/ECAM 2005 – Abstracts, Vol. 2. European Meteorological Society. EMS05-A-00111., 2005
Szeidl L., Gimesi L., Markó T.: Időjárás generátor és a sztochasztikus modellezés néhány kérdése (plenáris előadás), VII. Magyar Biometriai és Biomatematikai Konferencia, Budapest, Összefoglalók, pp. 8, 2005
Bartholy J., Pongrácz R., Pattantyús-Ábrahám M., Pátkai Zs.: Analysis of the European cyclone tracks, the corresponding frontal activity, and changes in MCP frequency distribution., EMS Annual Meeting/ECAM 2005 – Abstracts, Vol. 2. European Meteorological Society. EMS05-A-00297., 2005
Bartholy J., Pongrácz R.: Methods for regional climate projections for the Carpathian Basin. International Conference Climate Change: Impacts and Responses in Central and Eastern European Countrie, Abstracts. Hungarian Academy of Sciences – Regional Environmental Center – Ministry of Environment and Water, Budapest. pp. 13., 2005
Bartholy J., Pongrácz R.: Methods for regional climate projections for the Carpathian Basin. International Conference Climate Change, Impacts and Responses in Central and Eastern European Countries. Pécs, 2005. november 5-8., 2005
Bartholy J., Pongrácz R., Pattantyús-Ábrahám M., Pátkai Zs.: Analysis of the European cyclone tracks, the corresponding frontal activity, and changes in MCP frequency distribution., 5th Annual Meeting of the European Meteorological Society (EMS) and 7th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM), Utrecht, Netherlands. September 12-16,, 2005
Kern A., Bartholy J., Pongrácz R., Dezso Zs., Barcza Z., Torma Cs.: Hydrological consequences of annual- and decadal-scale change of vegetation cover using remotely sensed data., General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union. Vienna, Austria. 24-29 April 2005., 2005
Bartholy J., Pongrácz R.: Regional climate reconstruction based on written sources for the Carpathian Basin., General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union. Vienna, Austria. 24-29 April 2005., 2005
Pongrácz R., Bartholy J.: Analysis of drought events occurred in the 20th century based on extreme precipitation indices., General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union. Vienna, Austria. 24-29 April 2005, 2005
Hunyady A., Mika J., Pongrácz R., Zsuffa I.: Climate change effects on water level extremes modelled for an oxbow., General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union. Vienna, Austria. 24-29 April 2005, 2005
Bartholy J., Pongrácz R: Tendency analysis of extreme climate parameters for the Carpathian Basin in the second half of the 20th century. IAMAS 2005, Scientific Assembly of the International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences. Beijing, China. August 2-11, 2005. C4, 2005
Bartholy J., Pongrácz R.: Regional effects of climate oscillations in Central/Eastern Europe, 1st Alexander von Humboldt International Conference on The El Niño phenomenon and its global impact. Guayaquil, Ecuador, May 16-20, 2005., 2005
Pongrácz R., Bartholy J., Bogardi I.: Modelling ENSO-affected regional drought using fuzzy logic, 1st Alexander von Humboldt International Conference on The El Niño phenomenon and its global impact. Guayaquil, Ecuador, May 16-20, 2005., 2005
Pongrácz R., Bartholy J.: Climate reconstruction analysis of the coded Rethly documentary collection covering the Central/Eastern European region., IAMAS 2005, Scientific Assembly of the International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences. Beijing, China. August 2-11, 2005. C9, 2005
Pongrácz R., Bartholy J., Pattantyus-Abraham M., Patkai Zs.: Analysis of European cyclone tracks and their frontal movements in the Carpathian Basin during the last four decades on the base of ERA-40 datasets, . IAMAS 2005, Scientific Assembly of the International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences. Beijing, China. August 2-11, 2005. C8, 2005
Bartholy J., Pongrácz R., Torma Cs., Hunyady A.: Comparisonal analysis of regional climate projections for Hungary using statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques., IAMAS 2005, Scientific Assembly of the International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences. Beijing, China. August 2-11, 2005. C2, 2005
J., Pongrácz R., Dezső Zs., Kern A., Barcza Z.: Remotely sensed detection of land cover change at the Upper-Tisza watershed located in the mountain Carpathes., 5th Annual Meeting of the European Meteorological Society (EMS) and 7th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM), Utrecht, Netherlands. September 12-16,, 2005
Pongrácz R., Bartholy J.: Analysis of extreme climate indices based on daily precipitation and temperature observations in the Carpathian Basin., . 5th Annual Meeting of the European Meteorological Society (EMS) and 7th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM), Utrecht, Netherlands. September 12-16, 2005
Bartholy J., Pongrácz R., Hunyady A., Torma Cs.: Regional climate scenarios for Hungary using statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques., 5th Annual Meeting of the European Meteorological Society (EMS) and 7th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM), Utrecht, Netherlands. September 12-16,, 2005
Bartholy J., Pongrácz R.: Comparing tendencies of some temperature related extreme indices on global and regional scales., Időjárás, 110 (No. 1.), pp. 35-48., 2006
Bartholy J., Pongrácz R.: Regional analysis of extreme temperature and precipitation indices for the Carpathian Basin from 1946 to 2001.regional scales., Global and Planetary Change DOI:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.11.002., 2006



Back »