Statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts for various weather quantities  Page description

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Details of project

  
Identifier
125679
Type NN
Principal investigator Baran, Sándor
Title in Hungarian Különféle időjárási mennyiségek ensemble előrejelzéseinek statisztikai utófeldolgozása
Title in English Statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts for various weather quantities
Keywords in Hungarian ensemble utófeldolgozás, paraméterbecslés, R csomag, többváltozós modellezés, valószínűségi előrejelzés
Keywords in English ensemble post-processing, multivariate modelling, parameter estimation. probabilistic forecasting, R package
Discipline
Mathematics (Council of Physical Sciences)60 %
Ortelius classification: Statistics
Meteorology, atmospheric physics and dynamics (Council of Complex Environmental Sciences)20 %
Ortelius classification: Climatology
Information Technology (Council of Physical Sciences)20 %
Ortelius classification: Applied informatics
Panel Mathematics and Computing Science
Department or equivalent Department of Applied Mathematics and Probability Theory (University of Debrecen)
Participants Szokol, Patrícia Ágnes
Starting date 2018-03-01
Closing date 2023-09-30
Funding (in million HUF) 7.210
FTE (full time equivalent) 3.97
state running project





 

Final report

  
Results in Hungarian
Kidolgoztunk és implementáltunk a folyók vízszintje, szélsebesség, napsugárzás, valamint különféle hőindexek ensemble előrejelzéseinek utófeldolgozására szolgáló paraméteres modelleket. A szélsebesség és napsugárzás modelleink egy része jelenleg pre-operatív tesztelés alatt áll az Országos Meteorológiai Szolgálatnál. Emellett vizsgáltuk a felsősödés ensemble előrejelzések gépi tanuláson alapuló kalibrációját és kiegészítettük az ensembleMOS R csomagot néhány korszerű nem-homogén regressziós modellel. Elvégeztük a különféle többdimenziós ensemble utófeldolgozó technikák szimuláción alapuló részletes összehasonlítását, amit később kiegészítettünk egy a European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) globális hőmérséklet, szélsebesség és csapadékösszeg ensemble előrejelzéseire támaszkodó összehasonlítással. Szemi-lokális paraméterbecsléseket alkalmazva megvizsgáltuk a statisztikai kalibrálás hatását az ECMWF duális felbontású globális szélsebesség előrejelzésein, valamint teszteltük a Weather Research and Forecasting modell Chile központi régióira adott hőmérséklet és szélsebesség ensemble előrejelzéseinek kalibrálására szolgáló különféle utófeldolgozó technikákat Foglalkoztunk még az optimális mintavételezés kérdéseivel Ornstein-Uhlenbeck folyamatok előrejelzései esetén és javasoltunk egy új módszert, ami felismeri a kapcsolatot a korrelált hibákkal terhelt regressziós modellek becslése és predikciója között. valamint meg is adja annak pontos jellegét.
Results in English
We developed a implemented parametric post-processing models for ensemble forecasts of water level, wind speed, solar irradiance and various heat indices. Some of our wind speed and solar irradiance models are in pre-operational testing at the Hungarian Meteorological Service. We also investigated machine-learning calibration of total cloud cover ensemble forecast and extended the ensembleMOS R package with some state-of-the-art non-homogeneous regression models. We performed a detailed simulation-based comparison of multivariate ensemble post-processing methods which was later extended by a comparison using global temperature, wind speed and precipitation accumulation ensemble forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Using semi-local parameter estimation techniques, we studied the effect of statistical calibration on dual-resolution ECMWF temperature ensemble forecasts and tested different post-processing techniques for calibrating ensemble forecast of temperature and wind speed for central regions of Chile obtained by the Weather Research and Forecasting model. We also considered the problem of optimal designs for the prediction of complex Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes and proposed a novel approach identifying relationship and providing the exact relations between estimation and prediction for regression problems with correlated errors.
Full text https://www.otka-palyazat.hu/download.php?type=zarobeszamolo&projektid=125679
Decision
Yes





 

List of publications

  
Lakatos Mária, Lerch Sebastian, Hemri Stephan, Baran Sándor: Comparison of multivariate post‐processing methods using global ECMWF ensemble forecasts, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 149: (752) pp. 856-877., 2023
Baran Ágnes, Lerch Sebastian, El Ayari Mehrez, Baran Sándor: Machine learning for total cloud cover prediction, NEURAL COMPUTING & APPLICATIONS 33: pp. 2605-2620., 2021
Baran Sándor, Baran Ágnes: Calibration of wind speed ensemble forecasts for power generation, IDŐJÁRÁS / QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE 125: (4) pp. 609-624., 2021
Baran Sándor, Szokol Patrícia, Szabó Marianna: Truncated generalized extreme value distribution‐based ensemble model output statistics model for calibration of wind speed ensemble forecasts, ENVIRONMETRICS 32: (6) e2678, 2021
Díaz Mailiu, Nicolis Orietta, Marín Julio César, Baran Sándor: Post-processing methods for calibrating the wind speed forecasts in central regions of Chile, ANNALES MATHEMATICAE ET INFORMATICAE 53: pp. 93-108., 2021
Schulz Benedikt, El Ayari Mehrez, Lerch Sebastian, Baran Sándor: Post-processing numerical weather prediction ensembles for probabilistic solar irradiance forecasting, SOLAR ENERGY 220: pp. 1016-1031., 2021
Baran Sándor: Discussion on A high‐resolution bilevel skew‐t stochastic generator for assessing Saudi Arabia's wind energy resources, ENVIRONMETRICS 31: (7) e2650, 2020
Baran Sándor, Baran Ágnes, Pappenberger Florian, Ben Bouallègue Zied: Statistical post-processing of heat index ensemble forecasts: Is there a royal road?, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 146: (732) pp. 3416-3434., 2020
Baran Sándor, Möller Annette: Various approaches to statistical calibration of ensemble weather forecasts, ERCIM NEWS (121) pp. 30-31., 2020
Robert, A. Yuen ; Sándor, Baran ; Chris, Fraley ; Tilmann, Gneiting ; Sebastian, Lerch ; Michael, Scheuerer ; Thordis, L. Thorarinsdottir: R package ensembleMOS, Version 0.8.2: Ensemble Model Output Statistics, https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=ensembleMOS, 2018
Díaz Mailiu, Nicolis Orietta, Marín Julio César, Baran Sándor: Statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts of temperature in Santiago de Chile, METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS 27: (1) e1818, 2020
Lerch Sebastian, Baran Sándor, Möller Annette, Groß Jürgen, Schefzik Roman, Hemri Stephan, Graeter Maximiliane: Simulation-based comparison of multivariate ensemble post-processing methods, NONLINEAR PROCESSES IN GEOPHYSICS 27: (2) pp. 349-371., 2020
Sikolya Kinga, Baran Sándor: On the optimal designs for the prediction of complex Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-THEORY AND METHODS 49: (20) pp. 4859-4870., 2020
Stehlík Milan, Kišelák Jozef, Bukina Elena, Lu Ying, Baran Sándor: Fredholm integral relation between compound estimation and prediction (FIRCEP), STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS AND APPLICATIONS 38: (3) pp. 427-459., 2020
Baran Sándor, Hemri Stephan, El Ayari Mehrez: Statistical post‐processing of water level forecasts using Bayesian model averaging with doubly‐truncated normal components, WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 55: (5) pp. 3997-4013., 2019
Baran Sándor, Leutbecher Martin, Szabó Marianna, Ben Bouallègue Zied: Statistical post-processing of dual-resolution ensemble forecasts, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 145: (721) pp. 1705-1720., 2019
Burai Pál, Kiss Gergely, Szokol Patricia: A dichotomy result for strictly increasing bisymmetric maps, JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND APPLICATIONS 526: (2) 127269, 2023
Lakatos Mária, Lerch Sebastian, Hemri Stephan, Baran Sándor: Comparison of multivariate post‐processing methods using global ECMWF ensemble forecasts, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2023
Szabó Marianna, Gascón Estibalíz, Baran Sándor: Parametric post-processing of dual-resolution precipitation forecasts, arXiv: 2212.12504, 2022
Baran Ágnes, Baran Sándor: A two-step machine learning approach to statistical post-processing of weather forecasts for power generation, arXiv: 2207.07589, 2022
Baran Ágnes, Lerch Sebastian, El Ayari Mehrez, Baran Sándor: Machine learning for total cloud cover prediction, NEURAL COMPUTING & APPLICATIONS 33: pp. 2605-2620., 2021
Baran Sándor, Szokol Patrícia, Szabó Marianna: Truncated generalized extreme value distribution‐based ensemble model output statistics model for calibration of wind speed ensemble forecasts, ENVIRONMETRICS 32: (6) e2678, 2021
Schulz Benedikt, El Ayari Mehrez, Lerch Sebastian, Baran Sándor: Post-processing numerical weather prediction ensembles for probabilistic solar irradiance forecasting, SOLAR ENERGY 220: pp. 1016-1031., 2021
Baran Sándor, Baran Ágnes: Calibration of wind speed ensemble forecasts for power generation, IDŐJÁRÁS / QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE 125: (4) pp. 609-624., 2021
Díaz Mailiu, Nicolis Orietta, Marín Julio César, Baran Sándor: Post-processing methods for calibrating the wind speed forecasts in central regions of Chile, ANNALES MATHEMATICAE ET INFORMATICAE, doi:10.33039/ami.2021.03.012, 2021
Schultz Benedikt, El Ayari Mehrez, Lerch Sebastian, Baran Sándor: Post-processing numerical weather prediction ensembles for probabilistic solar irradiance forecasting, SOLAR ENERGY (in press), 2021
Baran Sándor, Szokol Patrícia, Szabó Marianna: Truncated generalized extreme value distribution-based ensemble model output statistics model for calibration of wind speed ensemble forecasts, ENVIRONMETRICS: e2678, doi:10.1002/env.2678, 2021
Baran Ágnes, Lerch Sebastian, El Ayari Mehrez, Baran Sándor: Machine learning for total cloud cover prediction, NEURAL COMPUTING & APPLICATIONS 33: pp. 2605-2620., 2021
Baran Sándor, Baran Ágnes: Calibration of wind speed ensemble forecasts for power generation, IDŐJÁRÁS / QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE 125: (4) pp. 609-624., 2021
Baran Sándor, Szokol Patrícia, Szabó Marianna: Truncated generalized extreme value distribution‐based ensemble model output statistics model for calibration of wind speed ensemble forecasts, ENVIRONMETRICS 32: (6) e2678, 2021
Díaz Mailiu, Nicolis Orietta, Marín Julio César, Baran Sándor: Post-processing methods for calibrating the wind speed forecasts in central regions of Chile, ANNALES MATHEMATICAE ET INFORMATICAE 53: pp. 93-108., 2021
Schulz Benedikt, El Ayari Mehrez, Lerch Sebastian, Baran Sándor: Post-processing numerical weather prediction ensembles for probabilistic solar irradiance forecasting, SOLAR ENERGY 220: pp. 1016-1031., 2021
Baran Sándor: Discussion on “A high‐resolution bilevel skew‐ t stochastic generator for assessing Saudi Arabia's wind energy resources”, ENVIRONMETRICS 31: (7) e2650, 2020
Baran Sándor, Baran Ágnes, Pappenberger Florian, Ben Bouallègue Zied: Statistical post-processing of heat index ensemble forecasts: Is there a royal road?, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 146: (732) pp. 3416-3434., 2020
Díaz Mailiu, Nicolis Orietta, Marín Julio César, Baran Sándor: Statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts of temperature in Santiago de Chile, METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS 27: (1) e1818, 2020
Lerch Sebastian, Baran Sándor, Möller Annette, Groß Jürgen, Schefzik Roman, Hemri Stephan, Graeter Maximiliane: Simulation-based comparison of multivariate ensemble post-processing methods, NONLINEAR PROCESSES IN GEOPHYSICS 27: (2) pp. 349-371., 2020
Sikolya Kinga, Baran Sándor: On the optimal designs for the prediction of complex Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-THEORY AND METHODS 49: (20) pp. 4859-4870., 2020
Stehlík Milan, Kišelák Jozef, Bukina Elena, Lu Ying, Baran Sándor: Fredholm integral relation between compound estimation and prediction (FIRCEP), STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS AND APPLICATIONS 38: (3) pp. 427-459., 2020
Baran Sándor, Hemri Stephan, El Ayari Mehrez: Statistical post‐processing of water level forecasts using Bayesian model averaging with doubly‐truncated normal components, WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 55: (5) pp. 3997-4013., 2019
Baran Sándor, Leutbecher Martin, Szabó Marianna, Ben Bouallègue Zied: Statistical post-processing of dual-resolution ensemble forecasts, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 145: (721) pp. 1705-1720., 2019
Baran Sándor: Discussion on “A high‐resolution bilevel skew‐ t stochastic generator for assessing Saudi Arabia's wind energy resources”, ENVIRONMETRICS 31: (7) e2650, 2020
Baran Ágnes, Lerch Sebastian, El Ayari Mehrez, Baran Sándor: Machine learning for total cloud cover prediction, NEURAL COMPUTING & APPLICATIONS 22: (7) pp. 2605-2620., 2021
Sikolya Kinga, Baran Sándor: On the optimal designs for the prediction of complex Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-THEORY AND METHODS 49: (20) pp. 4859-4870., 2020
Baran Sándor, Baran Ágnes, Pappenberger Florian, Ben Bouallègue Zied: Statistical post-processing of heat index ensemble forecasts: Is there a royal road?, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 146: (732) pp. 3416-3434., 2020
Baran Sándor, Möller Annette: Various approaches to statistical calibration of ensemble weather forecasts, ERCIM NEWS (121) pp. 30-31., 2020
Lerch Sebastian, Baran Sándor, Möller Annette, Groß Jürgen, Schefzik Roman, Hemri Stephan, Graeter Maximiliane: Simulation-based comparison of multivariate ensemble post-processing methods, NONLINEAR PROCESSES IN GEOPHYSICS 27: (2) pp. 349-371., 2020
Stehlík Milan, Kišelák Jozef, Bukina Elena, Lu Ying, Baran Sándor: Fredholm integral relation between compound estimation and prediction (FIRCEP), STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS AND APPLICATIONS 38: (3) pp. 427-459., 2020
Sikolya Kinga, Baran Sándor: On the optimal designs for the prediction of complex Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-THEORY AND METHODS pp. 1-12., 2019
Stehlík Milan, Kišelák Jozef, Bukina Elena, Lu Ying, Baran Sándor: Fredholm integral relation between compound estimation and prediction (FIRCEP), STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS AND APPLICATIONS pp. 1-33., 2019
Sándor Baran, Ágnes Baran, Florian Pappenberger, Zied Ben Bouallègue: Statistical post-processing of heat index ensemble forecasts: is there a royal road?, arXiv:2001.08712 (submitted to the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society), 2020
Ágnes Baran, Sebastian Lerch, Mehrez El Ayari, Sándor Baran: Machine learning for total cloud cover prediction, arXiv:2001.05948 (submitted to Neural Computing and Applications), 2020
Sebastian Lerch, Sándor Baran, Annette Möller, Jürgen Groß, Roman Schefzik, Stephan Hemri, Maximiliane Graeter: Simulation-based comparison of multivariate ensemble post-processing methods, Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss., in review, 2020
Díaz Mailiu, Nicolis Orietta, Marín Julio César, Baran Sándor: Statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts of temperature in Santiago de Chile, METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS 27: e1818, 2020
Baran Sándor, Hemri Stephan, El Ayari Mehrez: Statistical post‐processing of water level forecasts using Bayesian model averaging with doubly‐truncated normal components, WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 55: (5) pp. 3997-4013., 2019
Baran Sándor, Leutbecher Martin, Szabó Marianna, Ben Bouallègue Zied: Statistical post-processing of dual-resolution ensemble forecasts, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2019
Sándor Baran, Stephan Hemri, Mehrez El Ayari: Statistical post-processing of hydrological forecasts using Bayesian model averaging, arXiv:1809:04000 (under review at Water Resources Research), 2018
Mailiu Dı́az, Orietta Nicolis, Julio César Marı́n, Sándor Baran: Statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts of temperature in Santiago de Chile, arXiv:1809.04042 (under review at Meteorological Applications), 2018
Robert, A. Yuen ; Sándor, Baran ; Chris, Fraley ; Tilmann, Gneiting ; Sebastian, Lerch ; Michael, Scheuerer ; Thordis, L. Thorarinsdottir: R package ensembleMOS, Version 0.8.2: Ensemble Model Output Statistics, https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=ensembleMOS, 2018



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